Draft Dilemma: Navigating Rookie Fantasy Expectations in the 2025 NBA Draft
More NBA Draft Content!
Rookie Reality Check
The NBA draft sparks excitement for fantasy basketball enthusiasts, but a critical reality check is necessary. Historically, NBA rookies rarely emerge as top 50 fantasy performers. The 2024 draft's top 3 picks (Zaccharie Risacher, Alexandre Sarr, Reed Sheppard) exemplify this trend, with only Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle providing periodic fantasy value among top 10 selections.
While young players' potential can be tantalizing, fantasy managers should exercise caution. This analysis examines the first-round draft results and top 6 picks, providing expert insights to help you make informed draft day decisions.
Disclaimer: If you’re playing Dynasty fantasy basketball and drafting players who can be owned indefinitely, a rookie’s value will be substantially higher than redraft leagues.
Draft Results – 1st Round
1. Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg, forward, Duke
2. San Antonio Spurs: Dylan Harper, guard, Rutgers
3. Philadelphia 76ers: VJ Edgecombe, guard, Baylor
4. Charlotte Hornets: Kon Knueppel, guard/forward, Duke
5. Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey, guard/forward, Rutgers
6. Washington Wizards: Tre Johnson, guard, Texas
7. New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, guard, Oklahoma
8. Brooklyn Nets: Egor Demin, guard, BYU
9. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles, forward, South Carolina
10. Phoenix Suns: Khaman Maluach, center, Duke
11. Memphis Grizzlies (via Portland): Cedric Coward, guard, Washington State
12. Chicago Bulls: Noa Essengue, forward, France
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Atlanta): Derik Queen, center, Maryland
14. San Antonio Spurs: Carter Bryant, forward, Arizona
15. Oklahoma City Thunder: Thomas Sorber, center, Georgetown
16. Portland Trail Blazers: Hansen Yang, center, China
17. Minnesota Timberwolves: Joan Beringer, center, France
18. Utah Jazz: Walter Clayton Jr., guard, Florida
19. Brooklyn Nets: Nolan Traoré, guard, France
20. Miami Heat: Kasparas Jakučionis, guard, Illinois
21. Washington Wizards: Will Riley, forward, Illinois
22. Atlanta Hawks: Drake Powell, forward, North Carolina
23. Atlanta Hawks: Asa Newell, forward, Georgia
24. Sacramento Kings: Nique Clifford, forward, Colorado State
25. Orlando Magic: Jase Richardson, guard, Michigan State
26. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Saraf, guard, Israel
27. Brooklyn Nets: Danny Wolf, forward, Michigan
28. Boston Celtics: Hugo González, forward, Spain
29. Charlotte Hornets: Liam McNeeley, forward, Connecticut
30. Los Angeles Clippers: Yanic Konan Niederhauser, center, Penn State
The Top 6: What are the Experts Saying?
John Hollinger, The Athletic
Adam Finkelstein, CBS Sports
Dan Titus, Yahoo! Sports
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks):
Hollinger’s analysis: A sigh of relief from Dallas fans, as Nico Harrison didn’t trade down or select somebody else. In all seriousness, this is an absolute no-brainer of a pick. Flagg’s mid-case scenario is that he’s an All-Star by the end of his rookie contract, and he has MVP upside. The bigger question for the Mavs is whether they should nuke the rest of their veteran team and rebuild around Flagg.
Finkelstein’s analysis: Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Dallas had less than a 2% chance of getting this pick and in Flagg the Mavs are getting not just an elite two-way prospect but an elite two-way player. He's ready to impact the team and help them win right now and be the bridge to the franchise's future. He can dominate defensively on and off the ball. Great shot blocker. High steal rate. Terrific passer. In his lone college season, he took major strides as a shooter and a creator. He's the future face of the franchise. A home run for Dallas. Grade: A
Titus’ Fantasy Take: Flagg's elite defense and all-around versatility make him an immediate top-75 fantasy candidate. He'll stuff the stat sheet across all categories, especially steals and blocks — think rookie-year Scottie Barnes with more range.
Dylan Harper (Spurs)
Hollinger’s analysis: Harper’s selection presents a crowd in the backcourt with last year’s Rookie of the Year, Stephon Castle, and the recently acquired former All-Star De’Aaron Fox. That may eventually force the Spurs to consider a trade, but the draft is first and foremost a talent grab and Harper is clearly the best talent left on the board.
Finkelstein’s analysis: The Spurs have an inside-out tandem they can build around for the next 15 years with Harper and Wemby. He's a big lead guard with a natural feel for the game and great playmaking instincts. He makes those around him better. There are some long-term questions about his shooting potential and durability. If he can address those areas, there are clear All-Star outcomes for him in San Antonio. Grade: A
Titus’ Fantasy Take: I'm not a fan of the San Antonio fit for Harper's skill set, as he will likely compete for touches with De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. Still, Harper's playmaking upside next to Victor Wembanyama is intriguing, but his shaky jumper caps early fantasy returns. The usage and assist rate will be key if he's going to be impactful in his rookie year for fantasy.
VJ Edgecombe (76ers)
Hollinger’s analysis: Not a shock to me that Philadelphia kept the pick even after shopping it all over. That’s just the way this front office operates; they want to find out the value of what they have first. Edgecombe was the No. 3 player on my board and addresses Philly’s glaring lack of athleticism up and down the roster.
Finkelstein’s analysis: This is solid, not spectacular. Edgecombe is a spectacular athlete with incredible defensive potential. He can put a ton of pressure on the rim but he needs growth with his guard skills, particularly making spot up 3s and being a primary ball handler. I don't know how much he can help drive winning right away but he's a very quality long-term piece. Grade: B
Titus’ Fantasy Take: Edgecombe reminds me of Victor Oladipo and the Sixers could use a high-energy, athletic defender in the backcourt. The Baylor product can shoot, too, so I could see a world where Nick Nurse staggers lineups between Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes.
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
Hollinger’s analysis: There were rumors that this pick was in play for a move down by Charlotte, but ultimately the Hornets likely didn’t feel great about their ability to trade back and still get their guy. Knueppel is a great fit with the Hornets, a wing who can score and address their lack of shooting. Also, score another for my draft board, as I had Knueppel as my No. 4 prospect and the top option left on the board.
Finkelstein’s analysis: He can play right now. He knows how to play with other good players and can hold his own offensively. He showed it at Duke. And when Cooper Flagg went down in the ACC Tournament, he showed he can be the alpha. He's an incredibly skilled, very strong, very smart player. My concern is on the defensive end. He's not an elite athlete. He wasn't guarding NBA-level two-guards at Duke. How will that fit next to LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in Charlotte? Grade: B
Titus’ Fantasy Take: Arguably one of the best shooters in his draft class, Knueppel's movement shooting and high-IQ playmaking could mesh well with the Hornets' young core. A low turnover rate and efficient stroke could warrant some waiver appeal if an injury arises.
Ace Bailey (Jazz)
Hollinger’s analysis: Our first surprise! Nobody was sure what the Jazz would do with the fifth pick under new management with Austin Ainge in charge, but they grab Ace Bailey just ahead of the two teams (Washington and New Orleans) that were rumored to be most interested in him. I wasn’t that excited about Bailey, but I’m more pessimistic than most; the other interesting part will be how he fits in a Jazz frontcourt that already has Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler.
Finkelstein’s analysis: I give this an enthusiastic "A." His upside is significant. He didn't work out for them but Utah was not going to get bullied by Bailey's representation. They took the best prospect on the board. I believe he's a top three prospect in the draft. He's a jumbo wing, high-level athlete and tough shot-maker. If everything clicks, he could have the highest upside in the draft. Ace Bailey is going to have an opportunity to have an immediate impact. I think in the long run this can work out very, very well for the Jazz. Grade: A
Titus’ Fantasy Take: He possesses some star qualities offensively that would translate well in fantasy, but red flags have been popping up during the pre-draft process.
Tre Johnson (Wizards)
Hollinger’s analysis: One rumor making the rounds is that the Ace Bailey non-workout controversy was all part of a plan to ensure he landed in Washington. Welp. I wasn’t as high on Johnson as others, but the Wizards need help across the board and he was the best player available on several public draft boards. Washington now has a surfeit of shooting guards with C.J. McCollum, Marcus Smart and Bub Carrington, but trades will likely have that worked out that by midseason.
Finkelstein’s analysis: The Wizards had the last option of a clear top six in this draft. They tried to get Bailey and came close. If Johnson is the contingency plan, that's a good outcome. He has NBA-caliber size and will be able to score right away in the NBA. He showed tremendous growth in his efficiency at Texas. He made tough shots as the focal point of the opposing defense and made strides with his passing. Grade: A
Titus’ Fantasy Take: Another sniper, Johnson has the shot-making tools to pop early. Inefficiency will likely diminish his value in category formats, but he's capable of being the top scorer in his draft class.
Conclusion
While the 2025 NBA Draft showcases exceptional young talent, fantasy managers must approach rookie selections with strategic caution. The data consistently demonstrates that rookie performance rarely justifies early draft investment. Here are key strategies for managing rookie expectations:
Fantasy Draft Approach:
1. Patience is paramount
2. Prioritize proven production over potential
3. Target rookies in mid-to-later rounds as high-upside lottery tickets
4. Monitor early season performance before making significant roster commitments
Draft Day Rookie Tiers:
- Top-tier potential (Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper): Monitor closely, consider Flagg early, while Harper should be considered a mid-round flyer.
- Mid-tier contributors (VJ Edgecombe, Kon Knueppel): mid-to-late round watchlist
- High-variance picks (Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson): Late-round flyers
Key Statistical Benchmarks:
- Look for consistent multi-category contributors
- Prioritize players with clear rotation paths
Risk Mitigation:
- Rarely draft a non-top-10-rookie in the first 8-10 rounds
- Avoid reaching for college production perceived potential
- Remain flexible and ready to pivot
Remember: Successful fantasy management isn't about drafting the next superstar, but strategically identifying emerging talent while maintaining roster stability.
The 2025 draft class offers intriguing long-term potential, but immediate fantasy impact remains limited, especially outside of these top six picks. Proceed with informed skepticism.
John Fritz - Bleav in Fantasy
Follow on👉Substack
👉LEAVE US A REVIEW ON APPLE PODCASTS
👉SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Robbin Marx
NBA Fantasy Analyst
Experience: NBC Sports - Rotoworld, HashTag Basketball, Bleav Network
 | A guest post by
|